Ever have the feeling that no matter what our government does, it's the wrong thing?
That's the feeling that's haunting me now, thanks to the latest National Intelligence Estimate on Iran's nuclear capability and ambitions.
First of all, releasing a National Intelligence Estimate for public consumption has always struck me as one of those laudably American, democratic acts that can also be perceived as knuckle-headed. Why would you release national intelligence? Doesn't it cease to be intelligence the moment you release it (if not before)?
And doesn't releasing intelligence tip your hand and erode your credibility? If the NIE said the Iranians were evil incarnate, and were busily loading their first nuclear warhead onto a missile aimed at Israel, we'd all accuse the Bush Administration of orchestrating or slanting the report to suit their own nefarious objectives. The report would immediately lose all credibility, and the downward slope towards an expanded war in the Middle East would suddenly grow steeper.
Instead, the report says the Iranians suspended work toward development of nuclear weapons capability in 2003, and this, too, is heralded as a triumph for Democracy and diplomatic containment, not to mention proof of an autonomous, straightforward intelligence community.
But this is knuckle-headed, too.
You can tell it's knuckle-headed by Iran's reaction: they've claimed a major victory, and understandably so. If they truly have curtailed or ceased development of nuclear weapons capability, they're still busily ramping up a nuclear infrastructure that can produce enough enriched uranium to make a bomb. They could have enough of the stuff after a year of continous operation of the 3,000 gas centrifuges they're busy installing at Natanz. Besides, why would a country with so many energy resources at its disposal need nuclear energy for purely civilian purposes?
What's more, China and Russia are backing away from further sanctions. The effort to pressure the Iranian regime not just to suspend nuclear development but to soften its sabre-rattling has lost all steam.
Ahmadinejad knows that if Iran does build a bomb, he'll be able to eviscerate Israel just by knitting his brow in the direction of Tel Aviv. Now he knows, too, that all Iran has to do is idle the centrifuges for awhile, and everyone else will back away.
He also suspects, rightly, that anything Iran does will now be judged charitably, because, gosh, we've misunderstood them all along. This is dangerous. We have a poor track record not just of detecting Iran's actions but of understanding its intentions.
Lately, every move they make comes up smelling like roses.
And every move we make smells like -- fertilizer.
To me, this moment is the ultimate indictment of the Bush Administration's execution of foreign policy. It suggests some or all of the following: a predisposition toward military engagement without justification; an intelligence community with diminished capacity, in near-rebellion, or both; a startling lack of credibility among Middle Eastern and global powers; an inability to read trends and anticipate developments in a way that could increase credibility and shore up intelligence-gathering capability; and a State Department trying to burnish its legacy while Rome is burning.
The result of the NIE, coupled with the bungled war in Iraq, is that we've increased Iran's credibility at the expense of our own, and in so doing given them a shield to do whatever the hell they want, not just with their nuclear program, but in the region generally.
No matter how accurate the report, no matter what happens in the intervening year, the next Administration's problems -- and yours, and mine -- just got bigger.
--T.A.